What to Watch in the New Hampshire Primary

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New Hampshire voters head to the polls on Tuesday for the first presidential primary of the 2024 nomination cycle, in a state that has been known to throw curveballs at overwhelming favorites.

The withdrawal of Gov. Ron DeSantis from the Republican race on Sunday effectively left what had recently been a crowded field of candidates down to two: former President Donald J. Trump, and former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina.

The national Democratic Party, pushed by President Biden, had wanted New Hampshire Democrats to break tradition and move their primary to the end of February. New Hampshire refused, leaving the president’s supporters to mount a write-in campaign for the absent Mr. Biden against Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota, the self-help author Marianne Williams and 19 other Democrats whose names are on the ballot.

After Mr. Trump trounced his opponents in the Iowa caucuses last Monday, here is what to watch on Tuesday:

After an early-January surge in the polls, Ms. Haley seemed be moving toward striking distance of Mr. Trump in New Hampshire, and when former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey dropped out on Jan. 10, it appeared that she briefly had a shot at consolidating the anti-Trump vote among Republicans, independents and about 4,000 Democrats who had re-registered as independent behind her.

New Hampshire polling in the last few days would indicate that any consolidation has fallen short of what she needs to win. If anything, Mr. Trump’s totals have inched upward. But New Hampshire has shocked the prognosticators before. Senator John McCain beat the overwhelming favorite of the establishment, George W. Bush, in 2000. Hillary Clinton bested a confident Barack Obama in 2008.

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What to Watch in the New Hampshire Primary

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